From favorite to failure: How George Simion lost to Nicușor Dan the Romanian presidential election

Nicușor Dan (independent centrist politician and incumbent Mayor of Bucharest) won the 2025 Romanian presidential election decisively over George Simion (leader of the far-right party AUR – Alliance for the Union of Romanians), amid an unprecedented voter turnout both in the country and abroad. With both camps increasingly radicalized and in a politically charged atmosphere reminiscent of Romania’s turbulent 1990s, Nicușor crushed his opponent, despite entering the runoff as the underdog.

The 65% voter turnout and the overall mood recalled the elections of 1992 and 1996, when societal polarization was equally intense and passions for or against then-President Ion Iliescu (a dominant post-communist political figure) drove masses to the polls.

Several fatal missteps caused George Simion to lose the election despite “having all the cards,” much like Victor Ponta did in 2014.

1. Arrogance — the old disease of front-runners

The biggest error was arrogance: a sense of superiority and contempt, shown not only toward his opponent but also toward voters. This natural arrogance was amplified by his belief that with the support of the Trump administration, he couldn’t possibly lose.

He made no attempt to hide his high-level contacts within the new U.S. administration. In fact, he flaunted them and abused his perceived influence. Acting against Romania’s own interests, Simion asked Washington to politically sanction the country by excluding it from the Visa Waiver Program (which allows visa-free travel to the U.S.) due to the cancellation of the first electoral round.

A blatant act of betrayal from a self-proclaimed sovereigntist, which cost him dearly: it angered voters and all Romanians who were looking forward to traveling visa-free to the U.S. starting late March.

Thus, arrogance — the disease that has brought down presidential hopefuls since 2004 — struck again. Adrian Năstase and Victor Ponta also lost due to the same flaw.

2. The public sector blunder

Another major political miscalculation was the announcement during the campaign that he would lay off 500,000 public sector employees. While arguably a necessary and correct measure, the clumsy communication — equating public servants wholesale with “social parasites” — combined with its timing and emotional impact, cost him votes. Not only from those affected, but also from their families who depend on their income.

3. The empty chair

His strategy of avoiding debates to preserve his first-round advantage backfired in the runoff. At this stage, he needed to persuade voters who hadn’t chosen him in the first round — the undecided and the abstainers.

He failed to do so, refusing all direct confrontations except for a single one hosted by Euronews.ro, where he perhaps realized too late that Nicușor Dan was a formidable opponent. By turning his back on voters, Simion showed not just arrogance but also disdain. The empty chair became a viral meme on social media, fueling a storm of ridicule. Simion’s flight from debates became a national joke.

In contrast, Nicușor Dan appeared solo at all televised debates hosted by news stations, answering all questions — convincingly or not — but determined to show voters he took their concerns seriously.

4. Ideological betrayal and the Hungarian boomerang

For an extremist candidate known for his previous virulent anti-Hungarian rhetoric, attempting to win over Hungarian voters in Transylvania via a backdoor political deal in Budapest with Viktor Orbán (Hungary’s nationalist Prime Minister) was a monumental error.

In doing so, Simion bypassed the authority of UDMR (Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania), disregarding its leaders. In response, Hungarian leaders in Romania rallied their communities against him, reminding them how Simion once danced on the graves of their ancestors at Valea Uzului (a military cemetery that has been a point of ethnic tension).

By associating with Orbán, Simion lost not only Hungarian votes but also alienated Romanian nationalists who were disappointed by this compromise. He thought distributing some flyers in Transylvania with photos of himself alongside Orbán and a few quotes from the Hungarian PM — his ideological MAGA ally — would win over ethnic Hungarian voters. But the xenophobia and chauvinism that helped AUR grow now came back to hit him like a boomerang.

5. The Paris image disaster

Finally, one of his unforced blunders was the image disaster in France, where he embarrassed himself by speaking in poor French, despite boasting a top grade on his high school diploma. He made a fool of himself — and the country he hoped to represent as president.

During a televised interview, the full extent of his imposture was on display: a lack of basic political tact, yet again the arrogance, and above all, the unpredictability of a young politician prone to disgraceful gaffes — even far-right figures in France mocked him.

Then came the fear — fear of AUR, fear of George Simion, and fear of his spiritual advisor Călin Georgescu , known sympathizer of the fascist Iron Guard movement. A party and candidate promoting violent rhetoric, aggression, glorification of war criminals like Ion Antonescu (Romania’s WWII dictator) or political assassins like Corneliu Zelea Codreanu and his legionnaires, and encouraging antisemitism — they alarm anyone with even basic education and judgment.

But it wasn’t just the ideological fear stoked by AUR and Simion. It was also the fear of real, already visible economic consequences triggered by the extremist candidate reaching the runoff. The Romanian leu (currency) plummeted, investors panicked, major projects were put on hold, and foreign companies felt directly threatened by nationalization promises and other economic absurdities made by Simion and Georgescu during the campaign.

Fear of the future drove undecided and previously absent voters to the polls. Even if they didn’t like Nicușor Dan, they voted against the danger of the country falling into George Simion and AUR’s hands. Fear of derailing from the West, fear of leaving the EU, fear of a new dictatorship, fear of economic collapse — a multitude of fears drove people to vote. And not necessarily out of enthusiasm for Nicușor Dan.

Incidentally, this is also a symbolic defeat for the Trump administration, which openly backed George Simion and Călin Georgescu — their MAGA disciples in Europe. Trump’s America hoped to plant its first MAGA flag in a European country and reinforce the eastern flank of the Brussels saboteurs, whom Trump sees as enemies. It didn’t work — adding another failure to their ideological record after losses in Canada and Australia, where anti-Trump candidates prevailed.

Instead, it is a significant victory for the European Union. Romania remains firmly anchored on its Western path, narrowly escaping the threat of extremism — at least for now. The country avoided, by a hair’s breadth, a political catastrophe that could have changed its course for generations.

It’s also a blow to Russia, but the real question remains: how long can Romania and its new president withstand the onslaught of these internal and external forces? They lost a battle — but have they lost the war?