What changes will take place in the PNL and in the relations with the PSD after the installation of General Ciucă at the head of the National Liberal Party 

It was, perhaps, the most low stakes and stress-free Congress ever seen at the PNL. Not even President Klaus Iohannis felt the need to bless the election of Nicolae Ciucă to the position of Commander-in-Chief over the Liberals with his presence, a mere formality in the absence of a challenger.

Rareș Bogdan, the first vice-president of the National Liberal Party (PNL), tried to explain the absence by invoking a super-busy agenda: „The President of Romania has been in a frenzy of activity for 45 days, I tell you, as a man who spends 3-4 days in Strasbourg, Paris or Brussels, at the European institutions.”

The frenetic activity ended on Saturday, however, when President Klaus Iohannis was seen again on the golf course at Pianu for some relaxation. He had every reason to remain relaxed on Sunday. The party has just installed in its leadership the most loyal men to the presidential palace.

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Prime Minister Ciucă, newly elected President, has also appointed Minister of the Interior Lucian Bode as Secretary General. The position had previously been held by Dan Vîlceanu, a close associate of former president Florin Cîțu. Bode will therefore be in charge of staff policy, relations with the heads of delegations and the local bosses.

Ciucă and Bode have a great quality, much appreciated by Klaus Iohannis: they do not express personal opinions. Disciplined executants, both coming from militarised systems, the Ciucă-Bode tandem at the head of the PNL perfects the solderly spirit installed in the party. Also in terms of internal changes: the position of vice-president left vacant by Nicolae Ciucă is taken by Admiral Vergil Chițac, the mayor of Constanta, who joins the 45-member Permanent Bureau ( it is hard to imagine how decisions can be taken in this penderous formula).

In the group of four PNL first vice-presidents, MEP Dan Motreanu has replaced Lucian Bode as secretary general. Motreanu is one of the few Liberals leading the party today who shows vision and has a long history in the PNL.

These are the changes inside the PNL. I followed Nicolae Ciucă closely at the Congress. It’ s hard to imagine that he will last in the leadership position for the long haul. It seems rather that his role, in the medium and short term, is to bring some order in a party dominated by chaos, to restructure, reorganize and clean up the chapters still controlled by Orban’s people.

Once he is installed as party leader, having already taken over as prime minister, Nicolae Ciucă loses the chance to remain at the head of the government after 2023 or to run for president in 2024. It’s a target raised far too early to be able to last in difficult times for more than a year, to put it generously in case he makes it through next fall and winter.

The neutrality displayed so far by the PSD leaders towards Nicolae Ciucă disappears. Within a month, the bayonet attack is expected to begin. Marcel Ciolacu has identified him as a political adversary since the day he announced his candidacy. The PSD leader is under pressure from several directions to declare war on the new head of the PNL: his party is starting to fall in the polls, and the inevitable attrition in the government. His rivals in the party can’t wait for an opportunity to challenge his authority. Any weakness could be exploited. It is worth noting that Marcel Ciolacu has already begun to profile himself as the de facto leader of the government, seizing public communication on issues of major interest.

On the other hand, the PSD leader’s personal interest is to maintain good relations with the new PNL leader, in the hope that the rotation as prime minister will take place, according to the political agreement, in May 2023. It is an impossible political equation to solve. How do you position yourself simultaneously as a fierce opponent and a reliable partner in the government?

The Liberals are already thinking about whether the PDS members will force an exit from government next year in order to challenge from the opposition the four rounds of elections in 2024.

But Marcel Ciolacu is also first and foremost a politician with a sense of hierarchy in the state. It is possible, therefore, that seen from this perspective, the political war between the two coalition parties will be postponed a little longer.

In conclusion, the four months of honeymoon in the PSD-PNL-UDMR coalition came to an end on Sunday with the installation of Nicolae Ciucă at the top of the PNL. From now on, the two big parties will most likely collide, it’s just a matter of time. The temperature in the coalition will rise as we approach the moment of handing over the prime ministership to the PSD.

But there are so many variables and unknowns before then, and it is so difficult to predict how hard a possible economic crisis will hit and how the war in Ukraine will change domestic political behaviour, that it would be extremely risky to predict beyond this year.