Beginning of the end for Romania’s major parties: one step away from the sovereigntist abyss

The final results of Sunday’s vote on May 4 leave no doubt: the vote for the so-called sovereigntists exceeds 50% (a reference to George Simion and Victor Ponta). An independent candidate like Nicușor Dan—even with support from the USR (Save Romania Union, a progressive opposition party)—received more votes than Crin Antonescu (former leader of the National Liberal Party), who was backed by a coalition of three major parties. A true electoral disaster. This marks the beginning of the end for the PSD (Social Democratic Party) and PNL (National Liberal Party).

This painful defeat signals the end of an era and a deep change in voter behavior. Without question, it was a massive protest vote—a harsh condemnation of the power system of recent years: a toxic cohabitation between corruption- and mediocrity-ridden parties (PSD and PNL), intelligence services, and the traditional media, bought off with public funds. All of this has now backfired on them—and unfortunately, on democracy itself. Because democracy is now gravely threatened by far-right, ultra-populist, anti-European political forces that offer no real solutions.

Romania finds itself at a historic crossroads, 35 years after the fall of communism. The major parties that have dominated three decades of politics can no longer control their own voters. Crin Antonescu couldn’t even gather half the votes that the PSD and PNL secured in the 2024 parliamentary elections (22% for PSD, 14% for PNL, 6% for UDMR – the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania). Traditional parties are being pushed to the margins, while fringe players are climbing rapidly to the top of the power structure. This is the legacy left behind by former President Klaus Iohannis: a nation in ruins.

Romania stands one step away from the sovereigntist abyss. Avoiding that step is extremely difficult. Most likely, the country will have to go through the experience of far-right extremism before voters—who are now celebrating their blow to “the system”—realize the scope of the economic and political disaster that will follow. The day after the victory of George Simion (leader of AUR – the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians) and Călin Georgescu (a controversial nationalist figure), we will see massive capital flight and a collapse of confidence in the economy. Catastrophe is imminent in a country where all macroeconomic indicators are already flashing red.

Nicușor Dan has slim chances of defeating George Simion in the second round. Where could he find over two million extra votes? Simion only needs a few percentage points from PSD and Ponta’s supporters—which will naturally shift toward the AUR leader. He doesn’t even need to negotiate for them. On the contrary, any support from deeply unreformed parties could hurt Nicușor Dan more than help him. PSD and PNL can no longer be reformed: they lack the human resources. Years of harsh “negative selection” have left them without competent individuals. One or two halfway decent politicians are no longer enough to fix rotten parties. They are doomed to a slow extinction.

Add to this grim picture the fact that the Trump administration is no longer a force for good. In its battle against the European Union, Trump’s America openly supports sovereigntist, extremist, and anti-European movements to undermine the EU from within. Predictably, George Simion will benefit from the same kind of support—overt, as was the case with Călin Georgescu, from figures like Elon Musk or JD Vance, or through more insidious channels.

And yet, even with Romania on the edge of the cliff, one step from the sovereigntist abyss, it is still worth fighting with all our strength for Western-style democracy. Nicușor Dan’s slim chances must be fought for until the end. There are still two weeks in which Romanians can decide whether they truly want to radically change the country’s direction and plunge into the barren adventure of populism, isolationism, and vulnerability in the face of Russia—or whether they would rather keep Romania among the European nations.